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Scenarios for South Sudan in 2020: Peace: the only thing worth fighting for
Jaïr van der Lijn
ISBN 978–90–70443–93–1


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Although a peace agreement that includes important steps to build a stable and peaceful South Sudan was signed in 2015, the future of the country remains highly uncertain. The scenarios described in this report are intended to give a picture of how South Sudan might look in 2020. They show that if the parties stick to the 2015 peace agreement and implement, consolidate and deepen the peace process, slowly South Sudan may be on the road towards a positive future. However, if the 2015 peace agreement does not hold and the peace process is not opened-up, the future is far less hopeful and entails horrible devastation and/or repression.

This report is published in cooperation with the Dutch peace organization PAX. The scenarios are intended to gather thoughts on possible long-term developments, stimulate open debate and may assist South Sudan and its international partners in preparing for the future. The project is funded by PAX.



About the author

Dr Jaïr van der Lijn (Netherlands) is Senior Researcher with SIPRI Armed Conflict and Conflict Management Programme.





Publisher: SIPRI & PAX
ISBN 978–90–70443–93–1
60 pp.
January 2016



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